Boletín MICHAEL: 8AM 10/10/18

Boletín MICHAEL: 8AM 10/10/18

Boletín MICHAEL: 5AM 10/10/18

BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 15A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

700 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018


...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MICHAEL HEADING TOWARD THE

FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY

RAINFALL IMMINENT...



SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.0N 86.3W

ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


None


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:


A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida


A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including

Tampa Bay


A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Surf City North Carolina


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

* Surf City North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds


A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For

a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.


A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.


A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.


A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.


Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.


For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located

near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.3 West. Michael is moving

toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-

northeast is expected later this morning, with a turn toward the

northeast expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the

northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and

Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to

move ashore over the Florida Panhandle later today, move

northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and

Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the

United States on Friday.


Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft

indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph

(230 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous

category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After

landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern

United States.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185

miles (295 km). A wind gust to 56 mph (91 km/h) was recently

reported at Apalachicola Regional Airport.


The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force

Reserve Hunter aircraft data is 933 mb (27.55 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...


Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft

Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft

Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft

Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft


WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are spreading onshore along the

U.S. Gulf Coast within the warning area, with hurricane conditions

spreading onshore later this morning within the hurricane warning

area.  Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across

portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and

southwestern Georgia later today and tonight.


Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within

the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight,

and are possible in the watch area by late Thursday and Thursday

night.


RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...


Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of

southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening

flash floods.


The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3

to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This

rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.


Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England

coast...1-3 inches.


SURF:  Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the

eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day

or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf

and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.


TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the

Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this

afternoon.  This risk will spread into parts of central and southern

Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.

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